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Explaining The Bill of Rights

Video: Part of a series exploring the first ten amendments of the U.S. Constitution and what they mean.

Covid-19 Impact

Retail Group: Rise in Covid-19

Cases Cause for Concern


By Steve Rensberry 
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   EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 4, 2020 -- National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz cited a number of positive economic signs this past month, even as the country continues to battle the Covid-19 health emergency, but expressed concerns about a prolonged recovery given the rising number of cases in the country.
    “Before we prematurely celebrate the return of the consumer, the wave of new coronavirus outbreaks spreading throughout the country are a major threat to the recovery,” Kleinhenz stated in a July 1 news release. “These outbreaks are alarming, and if they accelerate will certainly sway consumer and business confidence, taking a toll on output and employment and prolonging the time it takes to achieve a true economic recovery.”
  Kleinhenz's concerns were published in the July edition of the NRF's Monthly Economic Review. Among other things he noted:
  • The U.S. economy officially entered a recession in February according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a declaration that has usually taken from six to 18 months.
  • The stock market just ended one of the best quarters it has seen since 1998, recovering almost all of the losses that it saw in the first quarter.
  • Payrolls were up by 2.5 million jobs in May.
  • Consumer spending was up that same month by 8.1 percent, and retail sales by about 18 percent.
  • Despite the economic high points, all are below last year's levels.
“Will this recession be briefer than earlier recessions?” Kleinhenz stated. “No one has a crystal ball. And just as it can take months to be certain a recession has begun, it can take time to declare when one is over. While it would be unusual for a recession to last less than six months, it is possible that the current one could have already ended with May’s rebound. The good news is that the recession may have ended as fast as it started. The bad news is there is plenty of uncertainty on the shape of the reopening of the economy, and the recovery will be slow even if we are no longer in recessionary territory.”
   The CBIZ Small Business Employment Index (SBEI) meanwhile, showed June business hiring was “strong,” all things considered, though we're not there yet.
   A June 2 news release shared a word of cautious optimism from CBIZ Executive President Philip Noftsinger: “The June data displays the first real signs of hiring growth since the COVID-19 pandemic prompted nationwide business closures and pullbacks in March. There is a long runway for recovery, but the June data shows positive momentum. Notably, June 2020, which falls on the CBIZ SBEI's 11th year anniversary, denotes the highest reading for the index history for June.”

Other key points:
  • ADP and Moody's employment report data shows private-sector employment up by 2.37 million from the previous month (seasonally adjusted)
  • Small business employment was up 937,000 jobs.
  • With the exception of the information industry sector, “positive hiring trends” were seen in almost every industry.
  • Relatively half of the nation's small businesses, 51.4 percent, held steady with respect to employment; roughly one-third, 30.1 percent, showed gains; and the remainder, 18.5 percent, had lower employment levels.These positive trends, however, are likely to see lowered momentum in the coming weeks or months, according to the June report, with rises Covid-19 cases in certain states, forcing further restrictions on business operations.
“Before we prematurely celebrate the return of the consumer, the wave of new coronavirus outbreaks spreading throughout the country are a major threat to the recovery,” the NRF stated. “These outbreaks are alarming, and if they accelerate will certainly sway consumer and business confidence, taking a toll on output and employment and prolonging the time it takes to achieve a true economic recovery.”

Further Reference:
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Race for the Senate

Senate Election Consensus Map

Cites 18 As Contested


By Steve Rensberry
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EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 2, 2020 -- The latest U.S Senate Election Map produced by the site 270toWin rates four senate seats as being toss-ups in the upcoming election in November, those being seats held by Martha McSally in Arizona (R), Corey Gardner in Colorado (R), Thom Tillis in North Carolina (R), and Susan Collins in Maine (R).
Of the total 35 seats up for election, the report rates 18 as contested and 17 as “safe for the incumbent party.” This includes special elections in Arizona and Georgia.
As of June 18, the date of the report, the consensus forecast shows the Democrats with 46 seats, the Republicans with 50, with the 4 toss-ups uncalled. In other words, it's going to be very close.
The Republicans currently control 53 seats and the Democrats 47 (two are independent). “Democrats will need to gain three or four seats to take control,” the site states.
Contested races
Republican: Dan Sullivan (AK), Martha McSally (AZ), Cory Gardner (CO), Kelly Loeffler (GA), David Perdue (GA), Joni Ernst (IA), Pat Roberts, incumbent (KS), Mitch McConnell (R), Susan Collins (ME), Steve Daines (MT), Thom Tillis (NC), Lindsey Graham (SC), John Cornyn (TX).
Democrat: Doug Jones (AL), Gary Peters (MI), Tina Smith (MN), Jeanne Shaheen, Tom Udall.
Races rated safe for the incumbent party
Republican: Tom Cotton (AR), Jim Risch (ID), Bill Cassidy (LA), Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS), Ben Sasse (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), Mike Rounds (SD), Lamar Alexander (TN), Shelley Capito (WV), Mike Enzi.
Democrat: Christopher Coons (DE), Dick Durbin (IL), Ed Markey (MA), Cory Booker (NJ), Jeff Merkley (OR), Jack Reed (RI), Mark Warner, not running in 2020 (VA). 
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Race for Votes

Democrats Dominate Latest

Census Electoral Map

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   EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 1, 2020 -- With just 125 days until the Nov. 3, 2020 General Election, the nonpartisan website 270toWin is projecting a significant sweep by the Democrat Party candidate.
   Aggregate data compiled by the site in its 2020 Consensus Electoral Map, as of June 30, projects the Democrat candidate with relative assurance of 248 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, and the Republican candidate with 204. 
Visit 270toWin for additional map details.
   States considered Democrat strongholds include: Washington, Oregon, California, Illinois, New York, Hawaii, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and D.C. (183 electoral votes)
   States considered to be leaning Democrat include Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire (36 electoral votes).
   Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are seen as likely for Democrats (29 electoral votes).
    States seen as safe for Republicans include: Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Alaska (116 electoral votes).
   States leaning Republican include: Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa (79 electoral votes).
   States considered likely to vote Republican include Montana and Utah (9 electoral votes).
   Toss-up states include: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Utah, and Arizona (86 electoral votes).
   “To be inclusive of all states with even a small chance of being competitive, only those rated safe by at least eight of the ten forecasts are shown in the darkest shade,” the site states.    Ratings use in the composite forecast are obtained from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Niskanen Center, The Economics, PredictIt, Politico CNN, NPR, and U.S. News.
   “To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one,” they note. “Only states rated safe by eight or more of the ten forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.”
   See: Consensus Electoral Map; Forecasts Used
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National Poll: Zip Code Matters in Overall Health

   (BUSINESS WIRE) – April 4, 2019 – Nearly 90 percent of Americans believe that diet and exercise play the greatest role in influencing their health, and only 44 percent say that where one lives is an important factor, according to a national survey released today by the de Beaumont Foundation. Data from the National Academy of Medicine and other sources indicate that at least 80 percent of a person’s overall health is shaped by social and environmental factors like housing stability and quality, food, and access to parks and public transportation.
   The survey reveals that awareness of health departments is low, and people believe that doctors, schools, police, and firefighters have a greater impact on their communities’ health.
   “The health of our communities largely determines the health of our citizens,” said Brian Castrucci, president and CEO of the de Beaumont Foundation. “Because of that, public health departments are vital to community health and individual health. To improve their visibility and impact, health departments will need adequate funding, partnerships with other sectors, and the ability to demonstrate and communicate their value.”
  •    Also uncovered through the national survey of voters: Americans believe the factors that most influence health are personal choices like diet and exercise (87 percent), the environment (79 percent), and access to healthcare (78 percent). Only 44 percent said that where a person lives plays a major role.
  • Americans believe hospitals, schools, fire departments, and police departments play a more important role in making their community healthier than public health departments. 56 percent said their local public health department plays an important role, compared with 79 percent for hospitals, 75 percent for schools, 72 percent for fire departments, and 68 percent for police departments.
  • Among national voters, 66 percent of women said public health departments are important to community health (scoring them 8-10 on a 10-point scale), compared with only 46 percent of men.
  • In both rural areas and nationally, Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to value the role of public health departments. Among Democrats, 71 percent said public health departments play an important role, compared with 54 percent of Independents and 42 percent of Republicans. Only 17 percent of Republicans gave public health departments a score of 10 (“very important”), compared with 36 percent of Democrats.The perceptions of these organizations were similar among national voters and rural voters, each of whom rated public health departments above parks, libraries, and businesses in their impact on the community’s health.

   The poll findings suggest another reason why people may undervalue the work of local health departments: They’re not familiar with them. Nationally, only 15 percent said they are “very familiar” with their local health department and 34 percent are “somewhat familiar.” More than half, 51 percent, said they are “not too familiar” or “not at all familiar” with the department.
   Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national telephone survey among 1,000 registered voters from Aug. 31 to Sept. 8, 2018 (55 percent landline and 45 percent cell). The margin of error for a 1,000-person sample size is +3.1 percent.



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