Misery Index Update

Report: United States Misery Index

Hits High of 13.42

By Steve Rensberry

srensberry@rensberrypublishing.com

-------------------------------------------------

   EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 5, 2020 -- Recent data from the U.S. Misery Index, compiled in May 2020, lists the current U.S. economy at 13.42 on the scale, just one step behind the last major high of 19.72 during the Jimmy Carter Jr presidency. To be fair it has not been a normal year, but the numbers are sobering nevertheless.

   The Misery Index is calculated by combining the unemployment rate with the inflation rate, with the most recent rate derived from an April unemployment rate of 13.3 and an inflation rate of 0.12.
   The Trump administration has fared better in terms of yearly Index averages since 2016, benefiting from an economy on the upswing, but this year has not been good. The first three years of Trump's presidency saw Index values of 6.49 (2017), 6.34 (2018), and 2019 (5.44).
   One group critical of the current administration, in particular its handling of the coronavirus threat, has created a Trump Misery Index, which it says is a composite measure of the current unemployment rate, the current inflation rate, the aggregate number of COVID-19 cases in the United States and the aggregate number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
   "The Trump Misery Index is calculated by combining the total number of COVID-19 deaths and cases divided by 1,000 and then adding the sum of the current unemployment and inflation rates," the group states. See: Lincoln Project Trump Misery Index
   The last four years of the Obama administration averaged 8.83 on the Index, with the numbers for each year as follows: 8.86 (2013), 7.80 (2014), 5.40 (2010), and 6.13 (2016). The Obama administration gets credit for reducing the index from 10.15 in 2012 to 5.4 in 2015, before rising to 6.13 in 2016.
   Administrations with the five highest Misery Index numbers have included four Republican administrations and one Democrat, those being the administrations of Gerald R. Ford (12.66), George H. W. Bush (10.07), Richard M. Nixon (17.01), and Donald J. Trump (13.42). The Index hit its highest however, under Jimmy Carter Jr., (19.72).
   The Index's all time high was in June 1980 at 21.98. The all-time low was in July 1953, at 2.97.

Economy Trumps Social Issues, Foreign Policy

Candidates Avoid Debates Over Civil Rights, Middle East Conflict
-----------------------------------------------------
                       By Mike Cyr
                   Business/Economy
------------------------------------------------------
   (RPC) - 11/6/10 - As expected, the recent midterm election has elevated the spirits of the populist, relatively-out-of-power political right. The question is, for how long?
   Despite their gains, it's a near certainly that those who consider themselves left wing, centrist or otherwise different from the right will soon find their own spirits becoming energized in near equal proportion, as has been the case throughout history.
   One of many oddities of the Nov. 2 election was noted in a Nov. 5 article by Michael Cooper of the New York Times. That is, even though voters turned over a large number of seats to Republicans they did so with a striking degree of trepidation. If it was a vote for the "lesser of two evils," is was only by the very slightest degree. Exit polls, Cooper points out, showed 53 percent of voters disapproving of the Democrats and 52 percent disapproving of the Republicans. Apparently some weren't afraid to parcel out blame to both in equal measure.
   As pertains to blame, Cooper notes poll results which show voters blaming Wall Street (35 percent), President George W. Bush (29 percent), and President Barack Obama (23 percent). See Debunking the Myths of the Midterm.
   Rather than presenting either major party with a  mandate, the results suggest a public that is profoundly confused, incredible impatient and nearly schizophrenic in some respects. Maybe the economy was beginning to turn around. Maybe not. Either way, today's elected officials--of whatever ideological persuasion--are being asked to govern in an almost lose-lose situation.
   Two addition observations: There was a near total lack of debate in this past election over social issues such as abortion and gay rights, and over foreign policy--issues that are certain to hold sway over the election of 2012. Baring an economic miracle, time may be the only remedy to escape the vicious "get in, get all you can, then get out" political pattern that appears to rule the day.