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By Steve Rensberry
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EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 8, 2020 -- All 435 seats in
the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for election on Nov. 3, with most forecasts showing a tight battle in many states, while leaning toward continued control by the Democrats. Significant uncertainty remains, however, with a full 118 days left until the big day.
The 2020 Consensus
map compiled each election by the site 270toWin shows, as of June 2,
the Democrats with a likely 223 seats and the Republicans with 193,
with 19 seats forecast as “toss-ups.”
Of the 223
forecast for the Democrats, 181 are designated at “safe,” 27 are
designated “likely,” and 15 are designated as “leaning.” Of
the 193 forecast for the Republicans, 158 are designed “safe,” 21
as “likely,” and 14 as “leaning.” The Democrat currently
control the house and will need to win 218 seats to maintain that
advantage.
Rachel Bitecofer
of the Washington D.C. Niskanent Center posted an update of the center's projections on June 7, speculating that the Democrats would capture
50 Senate seats to the Republican's 47, with three considered
toss-ups. In the House, the Niskanen projects the Democrats will
capture 241 seats to the Republican's 182.
“Whatever 2020
turnout is, barring something extraordinary that disrupts the
election, if more Democrats and left-leaning independents vote than
did so in 2016 and pure independents break against Trump and
congressional Republicans, Democrats will not only hold their 2018
House gains — they are poised to expand on their House majority and
are competitive to take control of the Senate,” Biecofer stated in
her report.
She cited the
rising Covid-19 death toll, a leveled economy, and the significant
impact polarization is having on the process. She draws an
interesting parallel with Jimmy Carer's reelection campaign in 1980,
not facing a polarized nation did face an economy in a downward
spiral from oil shortages, inflation and unemployment, then was hit
with the Iranian hostage crisis.
“Sound familiar?
It should, because in the electoral bloodbath that followed,
down-ticket Republicans flipped control of the Senate from Democrats
for the first time in 25 years. They also used the chaos to remake
the American economy, but that is a story for another day,”
Bitecofer stated.
For a look at the
full Niskanent Center update and report, see Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections.
