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Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Misery Index Update

Report: United States Misery Index

Hits High of 13.42

By Steve Rensberry
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   EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 5, 2020 -- Recent data from the U.S. Misery Index, compiled in May 2020, lists the current U.S. economy at 13.42 on the scale, just one step behind the last major high of 19.72 during the Jimmy Carter Jr presidency. To be fair it has not been a normal year, but the numbers are sobering nevertheless.
   The Misery Index is calculated by combining the unemployment rate with the inflation rate, with the most recent rate derived from an April unemployment rate of 13.3 and an inflation rate of 0.12.
   The Trump administration has fared better in terms of yearly Index averages since 2016, benefiting from an economy on the upswing, but this year has not been good. The first three years of Trump's presidency saw Index values of 6.49 (2017), 6.34 (2018), and 2019 (5.44).
   One group critical of the current administration, in particular its handling of the coronavirus threat, has created a Trump Misery Index, which it says is a composite measure of the current unemployment rate, the current inflation rate, the aggregate number of COVID-19 cases in the United States and the aggregate number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
   "The Trump Misery Index is calculated by combining the total number of COVID-19 deaths and cases divided by 1,000 and then adding the sum of the current unemployment and inflation rates," the group states. See: Lincoln Project Trump Misery Index
   The last four years of the Obama administration averaged 8.83 on the Index, with the numbers for each year as follows: 8.86 (2013), 7.80 (2014), 5.40 (2010), and 6.13 (2016). The Obama administration gets credit for reducing the index from 10.15 in 2012 to 5.4 in 2015, before rising to 6.13 in 2016.
   Administrations with the five highest Misery Index numbers have included four Republican administrations and one Democrat, those being the administrations of Gerald R. Ford (12.66), George H. W. Bush (10.07), Richard M. Nixon (17.01), and Donald J. Trump (13.42). The Index hit its highest however, under Jimmy Carter Jr., (19.72).
   The Index's all time high was in June 1980 at 21.98. The all-time low was in July 1953, at 2.97.

Survey: 2011 Retail Sales to Increase 3 Percent

   CHICAGO - (BUSINESS WIRE) - 9/22/2011 - In the midst of a difficult economic climate, retailers expect solid year-end results. According to a recent survey by BDO USA, LLP, retail CFOs anticipate a 3 percent increase in total 2011 sales. While this marks the study’s most optimistic sales forecast since 2007, it is down from the 4.7 percent sales increase reported by the Commerce Department in 2010.
   The vast majority (77%) of CFOs also say they expect to see a continuation of stagnant economic conditions. Just 11 percent expect to see an economic turnaround in the next year, up slightly from 2010 (9%). Thirty-eight percent of CFOs say improved consumer confidence will be most important factor for economic recovery, and another 36 percent cite lower unemployment as the linchpin.
    “Retailers may not anticipate a full recovery in the near future, but we’re not seeing gloom and doom in sales expectations,” said Doug Hart, partner in the Retail and Consumer Product Practice at BDO USA, LLP. “Despite low confidence levels, macroeconomic conditions are not weighing on the consumer’s wallet as much as expected, and CFOs anticipate moderate spending levels to continue through the holiday season.”
   These findings are from the fifth-annual BDO Retail Compass Survey of CFOs, which examined the opinions of 100 chief financial officers at leading retailers located throughout the country. The retailers in the study were among the largest in the country, including 10 percent of the top 100 based on annual sales revenue. The survey was conducted in August and September of 2011.
    Other major findings of the 2011 BDO Retail Compass Survey of CFOs:
    CFOs Forecast Comparable Store Sales Increase. Retailers are moderately optimistic for sales in the second half of 2011, including the all-important holiday season. A majority (51%) expect sales to increase during this period, up from 44 percent in 2010. Overall, retailers project a 3.5 percent increase in comparable store sales for the second half of 2011, an increase from CFOs’ pessimistic 2010 projections (1.9%). For all of 2011, retail CFOs forecast a 2.3 percent increase in comparable store sales.
    M&A Activity to Increase, Focused in U.S. Market. The appetite for M&A deals is on the rise. Nearly all (96%) of retail CFOs expect M&A activity to increase or remain steady in the next year. Most CFOs (66%) expect M&A activity to take place primarily in the United States, followed by the Asia-Pacific region (18%) and Europe (16%). However, the CFOs in the top 100 largest retailers who were included in the sample have greater expectations for the international market. Seventy-five percent of CFOs in the top 100 expect Europe to see the majority of M&A activity.
    Both Strategic and Financial Buyers Key to M&A Uptick. Although private equity deals have dominated acquisition activity, CFOs are predicting an increase in strategic buyouts this year. In fact, CFOs are split on whether upcoming M&A activity will be primarily driven by strategic buyers (52%) or financial buyers (48%). On average, CFOs say they would expect to see an EBITDA (earnings before income and tax, depreciation and amortization) multiple of 6.5 for an acquisition in the retail and consumer product space. According to averages from PitchBook, this multiple is down from the 2010 average of 6.8 and the 2009 average of 8.2.
    Revenue & EBITDA are Primary Financial Metrics. Retailers place great weight on sales growth, and 38 percent of CFOs say revenue is their primary financial metric focus. Still, another 36 percent say EBITDA is their primary financial focus. Sales growth is normally considered the best snapshot of the strength of the retailer’s brand, and competitive positioning. However, when it comes to credit and financing decisions, EBITDA is paramount, as it is considered the best indicator of recurring cash flows.
    Unemployment Still Plaguing Consumers. With unemployment levels hovering around 9.1 percent, it’s no surprise that CFOs cite it as the biggest barrier to consumer confidence (57%) so far this year. CFOs also point to fuel prices (17%), personal credit availability (14%), weak housing market (7%) and inflation (5%). CFOs surveyed after the U.S. credit downgrade noted a greater concern over personal credit, with 21 percent citing it as the biggest barrier to confidence, compared to 14 percent of the sample overall. For the remainder of 2011, CFOs consistently say unemployment (63%) will be the biggest bully to confidence, and relief does not appear to be in sight. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that unemployment will remain above 8 percent until 2014.

Barlow Survey: Unemployment to Remain High

   MINNEAPOLIS - (BUSINESS WIRE) - 11/11/10 - With poor past results and weak expectations for the future, small businesses are not preparing to grow employment or capital expenditures. This can be seen reflected in their estimates of when unemployment will return to a more normal level of 5.5 percent.
   Barlow Research’s Fourth Quarter Economic Pulse shows over one-third of small businesses (sales $100K to $10MM) and one in five middle market companies (sales $10MM to $500MM) believe that elevated unemployment is the new normal. For the remaining businesses, the median estimate for a return to a normal level of unemployment is 2013.
   High unemployment could mean continued low interest rates. With many financial institutions using interest rates on government debt as an earnings credit on business deposit accounts, Barlow Research estimates through its Value of the Customer model that a financial institution could see a revenue loss of 25-30 percent annually from the average small business customer when compared to a normal interest rate environment.
   With a loss of 30 percent of revenue, it will be important to discover ways to return the lost profitability. Some banks will recuperate revenues with increases in fees on accounts and transactions.
   These potential fee increases may create opportunities for cost-conscious banks to attract new customers. When small businesses are asked why they plan to change banks in the next 12 months, the top reason was increased fees and rates.
   During Barlow Research’s Economic Pulse web cast, guest panelists were asked how they expect increased profitability in the commercial banking segment.
  “We expect to see consolidation in the industry," Scott Peterson of Deluxe Corporation said. "The four largest institutions (Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citicorp) may not be able to participate due to deposit caps, but everyone else with a solid balance sheet is likely considering consolidation as a strategic option. In a flat economy, cost-driven, scale economies offer a path to profit growth.”

Recession Adds $2.2 Billion to Illinois’ Debt

   (Illinois Statehouse News) - By Mary Massingale - 8/8/2010 - As Illinois faces a $13 billion budget deficit, a separate $2.2 billion debt has quietly accumulated during the recession – and because of the recession.
    Illinois started borrowing from the Federal Unemployment Account last summer to bolster the state’s dwindling unemployment trust fund. The federal account serves as a line of credit for states across the nation so that unemployment benefits can continue to be paid to eligible out-of-work residents.
    “It is continuously something that we monitor on a daily basis,” said Greg Rivara, spokesman for the Illinois Department of Employment Security.
   Rivara said borrowing from the federal account is simply a necessary evil during a lingering recession that has left more than a half-million residents dependent on unemployment checks while the state grapples with an unemployment rate of 10.4 percent for June. The national unemployment rate for June stood at 9.5 percent.
   “If we were not borrowing money, we’d have to take a higher contribution from the business community or decrease benefits, or a combination of both,” he said.
   Illinois joins 31 other states in looking to the federal account, which has been tapped for more than $39 billion nationwide. According to federal data as of Wednesday, Illinois ranks fifth in most owed at $2.2 billion, Rivara said. California leads the pack at $7.76 billion, with Michigan ranking second at $3.8 billion, New York, third at $3.1 billion, and Pennsylvania, fourth at $3 billion.
   Businesses annually pay a contribution to the state’s unemployment trust fund based on its industry and previous history of layoffs. For 2010, the amount businesses paid annually per worker ranges from $81 to $908, Rivara said.
   Because second quarter contributions have recently been collected, the state has not had to borrow from the federal account for a couple of months, Rivara said, leaving the state trust fund with a balance of $275 million.
   However, the $2.2 billion still needs to be repaid, and a likely 4 percent interest rate will be tacked on come Jan. 1, if Congress doesn’t vote to extend the waiver of interest on the loans granted by the federal stimulus program.
   Rivara noted the $2.2 billion is separate from the $13 billion budget deficit since the budget relies on General Revenue Fund dollars. GRF dollars cannot be used to repay the unemployment loan, which is repaid partially through a portion of the business contribution.
   However, that’s not enough to whittle down the entire $2.2 billion, meaning options such as borrowing, increasing the business contribution, decreasing benefits or a combination of all three may have to be looked at, Rivara said – after Congress decides whether or not to extend the loan interest waiver.
“This does not jeopardize claimants receiving benefits,” he said.
   Illinois, like other states, chances losing federal funding if it maintains a deficit balance for two Januaries in a row, Rivara said, putting at risk $1.5 billion in annual tax credits for businesses and more than $100 million annually awarded for IDES operations.
   But he also noted that because of the nature of the state unemployment trust fund and its ties to a fluctuating economy, the fund is expected to run a deficit balance at times.
   “It begs a debate of what is the appropriate fund balance for the trust fund,” he said.
   However, he said he believes Illinois is “probably through the worst of times,” noting that Illinois follows the national economy in a recovery. The nation is gaining jobs, and so is Illinois — 60,000 since the end of 2009, he said.
   An economist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign agreed the worst appears to be over, but noted the pace of Illinois’ recovery is “painfully slow.”
J. Fred Giertz has the numbers to prove it in his just-released “Flash Index,” showing the Index rose to 91.6 in July, up three-tenths of a point from its June level.
   A Flash Index level below 100 indicates the economy is in contraction, while readings above 100 indicate economic growth.
   “Recessions always end, but this time it’s not going to be in six months,” Giertz said. “It’s going to be in one or two years.”
   Story courtesy of Illinois Statehouse News.