Illinois Politics

 Politics, Prejudice,

and Party Realignments

in Southern Illinois

A Look at 52 Downstate Counties and How They Voted in 2020

By Steve Rensberry
Opinion / Analysis

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EDWARDSVILLE, Ill., - 12/1/2020 - Look at a map of how Southern Illinois residents have voted since the late 1990s and you won't see much competition, nor much blue. This year's colossal presidential election was a perfect example, with Republican candidates -- the president included -- receiving support from roughly 70 percent of voters in nearly every county at-or-below the Springfield line.

Results per county (pg 1). See citations for data sources.

   How deep does the red run in Southern Illinois, and how long will its love affair with the GOP continue? If the two main political parties stay as they are, with Democrats leaning liberal and Republicans leaning conservative, probably for a good while yet. But there are no guarantees.

This particular analysis, compiled from the most recent election data available, looks specifically at 52 of the state's 102 counties, the most southern, with statistics on how each county voted in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and a select number of other demographics. Believe it or not, as of this past week not all votes in every county had yet been finalized or completely counted. I chose to use percentages for comparison rather than vote totals for this reason. The declared winners are not expected to change.

Results per county (pg 2). See citations for data sources.

   In one sense, given the region's history, the latest expression of political sentiment shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Historically, the region has always leaned conservative, the experts say, sharing cultural values with the South in general as well as with neighboring Missouri and Upper Southern states such as Tennessee and Kentucky. For decades it was a more conservative Democratic Party that captured their votes, dominating elections from before the American Civil War, through Reconstruction, up until the 1960s. Then things began to change. "Beginning as recently as the presidential election of 2000, Democrats have under-performed in Southern Illinois despite winning Illinois consecutively," this online description about the region states.

What is surprising to me is the depth of Republican allegiance and loyalty to such a polarizing president, apparently oblivious to the integrity they've sacrificed in the process -- a question more than a few people have asked since Nov. 4

  One estimate is that nationwide Trump won approximately 92 percent of the vote that he had in 2016. By comparison, of the 52 Southern Illinois counties considered in this study, Trump captured 98.7 percent of the vote he received that year.

   In the aggregate, pro-Trump voters in these 52 counties represented 69.6 percent of the region's vote totals in 2016, and 71.73 percent in 2020. Approximately 2.437 million votes were cast for Trump by Illinois voters in the 2020 General Election, compared to 2.135 million in 2016. See: 2020 Election Results.

"According to the national exit poll, Trump won 92% of the voters who cast a ballot for him in 2016. He also took 85% of self-described conservatives and 94% of self-described Republicans. Trump won only 81% of conservatives and 88% of Republicans back in 2016," writes Harry Enten in a 2018 article for CNN, How Biden won: He built on Clinton's successes. "Biden emerged victorious by winning an even larger share of the Democratic base than Clinton in 2016 and picking off voters in the middle of the electorate."

Southern Illinois has become a sea of red.

   Having been a resident of five southern counties since 1988, specifically the counties of Bond, Effingham, Madison, St. Clair and Clinton, I can tell you first-hand a good deal of the animosity toward the northern, more Democratic half of the state has been here for at least that long. The kind of intense devotion to a presidential candidate, like we've seen with Trump, is different however -- and a bit difficult to process. Where are the guard rails? Does might make right? I haven't seen a satisfying answer from Illinois Republicans to either of these questions, despite a platform in previous years that touted principles, ethics and fiscal conservatism. Have they changed that much, or was it all a ruse to begin with? You tell me.

We are, it's been noted, at a point where the pressure to rally around one political party and unite to defeat a common political enemy is everything. It's all hands on deck. Conservative Southern Illinoisans, however, were in the polarized camp long before Trumpism came along.

Again, from first-hand experience, if you're talking politics with a typical resident in small-town Southern Illinois, it's automatically assumed that you: 1) Hate Michael Madigan. 2) Know without question that Democrats are to blame for the state's economic problems. 3) Hate Chicago, and the people who live there. 4) Despise taxes from the depths of your soul, especially property taxes used to fund public schools. 5) Know that everyone north of Springfield is out to rob you of your hard-earned tax dollars, in order to fund a Democratic-led spending spree that benefits only those who live in-or-around Chicago. 6) Believe that everyone who leaves Illinois does so because of high taxation and the state's Democratic leadership.

There is no middle ground in the debate, and if you don't share these assumptions or insist on more proof or evidence, expect to be scoffed at.

Madigan, of course, does have some serious corruption issues on his hands, but thankfully for the Republicans they now have Gov. JB Pritzker, who conveniently fills the need for a downstate nemesis. Evidence of corruption or rural bias? Who needs it. He's a Democrat. Thus we see "Pritzker Sucks" signs on display, even when he's not on the ballot.

I've seen at least three types of analysis with respect to Southern Illinois and its political alliances.

One involves economics. Though both parties share blame for the state's fiscal woes, Democratic Party critics have successfully hammered their case home, painting Democrats as spendthrifts, out of touch, and the source of all that's wrong with the state's economy. One of the more neutral articles I've read on the subject was written by Daniel Vock in 2018: Who Ruined Illinois? 

Edward McClelland, writing for ChicagoMag in a 2018 article Why It's So Hard for Republicans to Win in Illinois, quotes Southern Illinois University Professor of Political Science John Jackson who cites the loss of unions and their influence in the region as a major factor in the loss of Democratic Party strength. "The same thing that’s happened to the South has happened here, though ours came more recently," Jackson said.

George W. Smith, 1824. Wikipedia Commons License

 

     Another type of analysis involves culture and the very early days of the state. Go back far enough and the most southern counties were clearly more aligned with pro-slavery attitudes and less progressive policies than those to the north.

Consider this description of the state's southern-most county, Alexander County: "Settled largely by white migrants from the Upland South, southern Illinois had many racial attitudes of the South. As African Americans settled in Cairo to seek jobs on steamboats, ferries, in shipping and railroads, there were tensions between the racial groups. White residents sometimes used violence and terrorism, as well as discrimination, to keep black residents in second-class positions. They excluded them from the city government and the police and fire departments, and relatively few African Americans were hired to work in the local stores . . . There were three lynchings of blacks in Alexander County in the years between Reconstruction and the early 20th century. The county had the second-highest number of lynchings of African Americans in all of Illinois."

Mary Bohlten, writing for Illinois Times about touring the National Memorial for Peace and Justice in Montgomery, Alabama, states: "When I toured the museum and memorial last spring, I was disheartened to realize Illinois had 56 documented lynchings from 1877 to 1950. St. Clair County had the most with 40, but Sangamon County had two, associated with the 1908 race riots. Deep southern Illinois counties had lynchings but so did Cook, Macon, Marshall and Vermillion. So did such states as Oregon, California, North Dakota, Michigan and Trump’s native New York."

Increased mobility across the nation has been cited as another factor in increased polarization, and in the concentration of residents of like mind. Speaking in 2014, NPR Correspondent Shankar Vedantam had this to say about the relationship between geography and ideology:

"There's new research now that links the red state/blue state phenomenon with the fact that 40 to 50 million Americans move every year. So we are an increasingly mobile society," Vedantam explained, citing research by University of Virginia Psychologist Brian Nosek showing that liberals and conservatives tend to migrate to areas that are more aligned with their own ideology. "The downside is that if this mobility phenomenon is real, it means that the more mobile we get as a society, the more polarized we're going to become. Red states are going to get redder. Blue states are going to get bluer. The United States is going to get less united."

Reform and change is good, but what are we supposed to make of the kind of radical, norm-breaking presidency we've just lived through, apparently supported by a large number of residents in Southern Illinois? I suppose we should continue to expect the unexpected. The irony is that while the Republicans in downstate Illinois fixate on what they see as "corrupt and irresponsible Democrats," they've all but climbed in bed with one of the most corrupt and irresponsible Republican presidents in our nation's history. Who their next reactionary leader will be, and how extreme they'll be, is anybody's guess.

Graph Data Sources
Statistical Atlas (educational/income/ethnicity data)
Politico (2020 election results per county)
Politico (2016 election results per county)
Wikipedia (county population data)
270towin (national and state election results)

 

Will Illinois Education Reforms Become Model?

   SPRINGFIELD — (Illinois Statehouse News) - 5/14/2011 - Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's desk is the next destination for the state of Illinois' education reform measure, but the governor may not be the last stop.
   Illinois lawmakers and education advocates say the reforms, which passed the Illinois House, 112-1, Thursday, could become a national model.
   Robin Steans, executive director for Advance Illinois, whose website bills the group as an independent voice to promote the public education system in Illinois, said she watched the vote in Springfield, but knows top officials in Washington, D.C., were watching too.
   "The United States Department of Education has been following this closely. And my understanding is that the president was interested in how the vote went today," said Steans. "So this (measure) is getting, appropriately, attention for both the substance and the process."
   Steans said she's been answering calls for weeks from education advocates in other states as to how they can copy Illinois' path to education reform.
   The reforms make it tougher for teachers' unions to strike. Seventh-five percent of teachers would have to vote to go out on the picket line. The plan also would make it easier to fire teachers by streamlining the process. Supporters say the two-year process to fire a teacher would be condensed to three to four months.
   And Chicago schools likely will see a longer school day, and longer school year because of the new measure. Chicago's public school day runs from 9 a.m. until 2:45 p.m., one of the shortest in the country. Mayor-elect Rahm Emanuel has said he wants to add at least an hour to the day.
   But Ken Swanson, president of the Illinois Education Association, one of Illinois' major teacher unions with 133,000 members, said the real take-away from Illinois' reforms was the way that all sides — lawmakers, schools, unions and advocates — worked together.
   "Look at what happens when everyone can come together at the table and talk," said Swanson. "That's something that colleagues in other states have not been given the opportunity to do."
   Swanson also downplayed the national potential of Illinois' reforms.
   "I think the Department of Education monitors the goings on in every state," said Swanson.
   But others cannot help but compare Illinois, and the state's successful move to reform, with other states. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia (D-Aurora), said Illinois should get credit for coming to an agreement without protests and runaway lawmakers.
   "You have Wisconsin, the drastic one end," Chapa LaVia said. "And Illinois where we got it together as Democrats."
   Chapa LaVia said she expects to hear folks from Illinois talking about that on Capitol Hill sooner rather than later.
   "You'll see some of our people going to Washington and testifying in front of (the U.S. Department of Education) and Arne Duncan, seeing how we got this done. Seeing how to maybe duplicate this in other states," Chapa LaVia said. Duncan is the U.S. Secretary of Education.
   Steans could be Illinois' educational advocate on the panel. But she warned that no one should be looking for a cookie-cutter solution from Illinois' reforms.
   "They've got to understand in their states what they have to work with," Steans said. "Where do they have leaders on the management side, on the union side, at their state agencies and legislatively? Who do they have to work with that buys the concept that we should be making decisions, fundamentally, based who's performing best for our kids?"
   Collin Hitt with the Illinois Policy Institute said that question remains unanswered, even in Illinois, and everyone should wait a bit before trying to export the "Illinois model."
   "Political consensus is less important than policies that actually work for kids," Hitt said.
   Hitt noted Quinn has yet to sign the legislation, though all signs are that he will.
   IPI is a nonpartisan research organization that supports free-market principles and liberty-based public policy initiatives in the state, according to its website.
   "If Governor Quinn signs this into law, then we can say that a Democratic Legislature and a Democratic governor did something that was unexpected a year ago," Hitt said.
   But State Rep. Roger Eddy, R-Hutsonville, said these education reforms should not be all that unexpected. He said Illinois started on the road to reform as part of the federal Race to the Top program. The state never saw the $500 million from the Obama administration pilot program that awarded grants to states for innovative, comprehensive educational reforms.
   But Eddy said Illinois did start having conversations about education reform.
   "In a lot of states, as they begin to discuss reforms related to education, you see this clash that takes place," he said. "In this case we came to an agreement with the major players. That's not been done around the country."
   Still, Eddy agreed a bit with Hitt, saying Illinois needs to actually implement the education reforms before the state can "spike the football."
   The only "no" vote came from State Rep. Monique Davis, D-Chicago, who said she could not support a plan that could weaken the Chicago Teachers' Union.
   "I'm not going to be a union buster," Davis said. "Especially starting in my own city."
   Story courtesy of Illinois Statehouse News.

Wisconsin Makes High-Stakes Gamble on Budget

   By Melissa Leu - (Illinois Statehouse News) - 2/27/2011 - SPRINGFIELD — Illinois lawmakers may be feeling a sense of deja vu as they look to neighboring Wisconsin's struggle to solve a pension and budget deficit. Illinois last March reformed its public employee pensions when the General Assembly passed legislation that created a “two-tier” pension system.
   However, Wisconsin has added collective bargaining rights to the mix, muddying the waters.
   Amid widespread protest, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker proposed a budget repair bill that would require public workers to contribute more to their pensions and health insurance and reduce their collective bargaining rights.
   Wisconsin Democratic senators have fled the Capitol in protest of the repeal of most collective bargaining rights, leaving the rest of the GOP-led legislature to ponder how to close the state’s $136.7 million budget deficit for the current year. Walker's plan passed the Assembly chamber early Friday morning, but still needs to clear the Senate before hitting Walker's desk for his signature.
  Illinois' reforms allow current employees to keep their existing pension plan, changing the rules only for new employees hired after Jan. 1. The retirement age increased to 67, maximum salaries were capped at $106,800 and payouts became based on a worker's highest salary during eight consecutive years of the last 10.
   At the time, Illinois was facing a roughly $13-billion budget deficit. Although the measure angered unions, it was passed and ratified without much legislative opposition — 92-17 in the House and 48-6 in the Senate.
   Jim Nowlan, a research fellow at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, attributes the diverging reactions from each state to a contrasting political climate.
   “The speaker of the (Illinois) House did strike very quickly last year and surprised the public employee unions, which did mount some opposition,” Nowlan said.
   Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, pushed the measure through in a single day.
   Nowlan attributes the lack of comparable opposition to a Democratic majority in the Illinois Legislature — typically backed by labor unions — that led the charge for pension reform. He likened Madigan's Democratic push to that of the late Republican President Richard Nixon's visit to China.
   “Only President Nixon could go to China back in his administration. A Democratic president would not have been able to get away with going to China to face and meet with the Communist leader of the world,” Nowlan said.
   In contrast, Wisconsin Republicans hold majorities in both the House and Senate. Walker, also a Republican, has made national news recently for moving to restrict union collective bargaining rights.
   Illinois state Sen. Dave Syverson, R-Rockford, who recalls last year's pension reforms, said he approves of how Wisconsin Republicans are handling the current situation.
   “Illinois is just putting off for a few months, maybe a year, what is inevitably going to be some painful decisions, because of the fact they refused to make small improvements over the last few years,” Syverson said.
   David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, said the widespread protests aren’t surprising considering the financial crisis and recent political turnover in Wisconsin leadership.
   “It's one thing to raise questions about the level of benefits, about the numbers of state workers, and it's another thing to question whether unions really have a right to exist. So that's bound to spark a great deal of militancy on the part of labor leaders,” Yepsen said.
   Walker has threatened layoffs of state workers if his budget repair bill doesn't pass within the next few days.
   Anders Lindall, a spokesman for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, said an attack on public unions is an attack on middle-class America.
   “There is no good public policy justification for any of these attacks on vital services that teachers, firefighters, police officers, nurses and public service workers provide to the state of Illinois,” said Lindall.
   Like the proposal itself, even Wisconsin’s future seems to be a place of contention.
   “I think Wisconsin, at the end of the day, is going to pay a terrible price for this,” Yepsen of the Simon Institute said. “The Republicans may well win in the short term, but they are going to create levels of personal animosity that will make it difficult for their policy makers to work together. They're going to create levels of union militancy that's going to affect the delivery of public services.
   Syverson, the Rockford senator, however, had a more positive outlook.
   “What's going to happen a year from now is that people are going to look back and say the tough decision that Wisconsin made as regard to their budget has made them financially sound,” Syverson said. “Their bond rating is going to be good. They're going to be attracting more business (and) more jobs because they’re going to be a financially sound state.”
   Story courtesy of Illinois Statehouse News. Originally published 2/24/2011.

Koch Brothers Fund Walker's Union-Busting Effort

Online production of Democracy Now! - posted on Feb. 24, 2011.