Elections in America

 GOP’s Full-Throated Nativism 

Fails to Resonate Beyond 

the MAGA Base

    Washington, DC – (America's Voice) - Nov. 13, 2022 - An array of voices are highlighting one takeaway from the 2022 midterms – once again, most voters rejected Republicans’ relentless anti-immigrant attacks and larger extremism. As in past recent cycles, the GOP fear-mongering and nativism failed to resonate beyond the MAGA base as Americans voted against leading peddlers of ugly nativism and expressed renewed support for common sense solutions at odds with Republicans’ ugliness. Among the voices and examples:

• Greg Sargent of Washington Post: GOP assumptions on border and immigration again “proved wrong”: As part of his larger analysis titled, “5 big GOP narratives just went down in flames,” Greg Sargent of the Washington Post notes, “Invasion language did little for Republicans,” writing that “Republicans have long enjoyed a presumption of a major advantage on this issue, but aside from Trump’s 2016 victory, it keeps failing to deliver … GOP confidence that President Biden’s ‘disastrous open border’ would spark major electoral repudiation, giving Republicans space to hyper-radicalize their base around the issue, has proved wrong.”
• Paul Waldman of Washington Post: “Arizona Democrats chalk up their big night to GOP focus on immigration.” Waldman writes: “Though Republicans wouldn’t use those terms, immigration was clearly the beginning and end of their strategy in Arizona this year. If you went to any GOP campaign event in Arizona lately, you would have heard a litany of horrors about the border as candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters painted a nightmarish picture of murder and mayhem pouring into American communities, courtesy of a quasi-conspiracy involving the Chinese Communist Party, Mexican drug cartels and President Biden himself seeking to flood the country with fentanyl and criminal aliens … In Arizona as elsewhere, through victory and defeat, Republicans’ faith in the electoral power of the immigration issue has been unwavering. And all indications are that whatever else happens between now and 2024, that isn’t going to change.”
• “Hatemongering isn’t a sustainable political strategy.” Los Angeles Times columnist Jean Guerrero, who wrote a biography of leading nativist Stephen Miller, responded to Miller’s attempted spin that Republicans didn’t make anti-immigration attacks enough of their focus by noting: “Except this is literally all the GOP ran on. Hatemongering isn’t a sustainable political strategy.”
• “While votes are still being counted, it’s clear Stephen Miller’s racist political ads were a flop” from Gabe Ortiz at Daily Kos: Ortiz writes, “Miller had been assuring his racist base that a “red wave” was in store for Republicans, doing his part by launching massively offensive ads in more than a dozen states that sobbed about supposed “anti-white bigotry” and pushed violent anti-immigrant imagery … But this week, voters largely rejected this bigoted agenda … ‘Stephen Miller predicted that Republicans’ nativism would help usher in a ‘red tsunami,’ but his tens of millions of dollars’ worth of overt racism and nativism fell flat in 2022—just as his similar election predictions about the power of GOP nativism failed in past cycles,’ said Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of immigrant rights advocacy group America’s Voice. ‘The strategy of trying to mobilize the MAGA base around extreme Trumpian grievances and anti-immigrant fear-mongering fell flat.’”

    Indeed, as America’s Voice tracked, the Stephen Miller-affiliated “Citizens for Sanity” spent over $51 million in TV ads across 16 states in the midterms’ homestretch with some of the year’s most vile nativist, racist and transphobic ads (as seen during World Series) – just part of the GOP’s relentless focus on nativism and 3,200 different paid communications on anti-immigrant themes highlighted by the America’s Voice’s ad tracking project.

    Following is a statement from Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director for America’s Voice:

    “Nativism has become the beating heart of the Republican Party and the throughline from Trump’s descent down the escalator in 2015 to MAGA extremists taking control of the GOP to the current perilous moment facing our democracy. And once again, the political potency of GOP full-throated nativism failed to resonate beyond the Republican base and may have been part of a larger backlash among many voters against MAGA candidates.

    "One clear takeaway from this election is that the GOP’s massive investment in nativist attacks failed to deliver, which is an especially striking fact given an election environment that overwhelmingly favored Republicans and that the issue was a top message priority GOP-wide. The vast majority of Americans reject the GOP’s radicalism and scare tactics on immigration and recognize that immigrants are a source of strength for the nation. Now, we need policies that meet the vast majority of the country where it actually is – in favor of common sense solutions that address the uncertain futures of Dreamers, TPS holders, and farm workers and in support of bipartisan reforms that will modernize and actually address immigration reform in a real way.”

Elections and Politics

Ohio Election Official: 

Politics are Political; 

Election Administration is Not

By Mary Schuermann Kuhlman, Producer
Public News Service

    (PNS) - 2/10/2022 - Since Election Day 2020, the integrity and accuracy of the vote has been the subject of speculation across the country, with local boards of elections often caught in the crosshairs.

    Here in Ohio, election officials seem to have avoided much of the controversy. With far-right groups and supporters of former President Donald Trump still questioning the 2020 results, several red states have moved to give legislatures more power over elections instead of secretaries of state, and penalize election workers for technical mistakes.

    Aaron Sellers, public information officer for the Franklin County Board of Elections, said while politics are political, elections administration in Ohio is not.

    "Everything we do here is done in bipartisan teams," Sellers emphasized. "For example, when the voting-location person brings back the supplies on election night, if that person is a Republican, there's a Democrat ride-along person that comes along with them, or vice versa."

More than half of voters in a recent Quinnipiac poll said they do not believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Ohio's postelection audits revealed an accuracy rate of 99.98% in 2020 and 99.99% in 2021, based on data from counties utilizing a percentage-based audit.

    While other states scrambled to develop a plan for voting in 2020 due to COVID, Sellers pointed out Ohio was ahead of the curve. Critics argued mail-in voting is more susceptible to fraud, but he explained there are multiple verification processes before the ballot is even mailed out.

    "And when it is returned, there's additional measures that we go through before we put that in the pile to count," Sellers added. "It's verification signatures, the last four digits of their 'soc,' (Social Security number) their driver's license number, whatever they're providing, those things are checked on the front end and the back end before those ballots are counted."

    With Ohio's legislative and congressional district maps still not set in stone, Sellers noted boards of election are in a holding pattern when it comes to preparations for the May 3 primary.

    "We're just as anxious as I'm sure our elected officials are to get this resolved," Sellers emphasized. "Elections officials, we take an oath to do this, and when it's scheduled we'll do what we need to do like we did in 2020 because of COVID."

    Wednesday, Republican Senate President Matt Huffman suggested keeping the May 3 primary for statewide and local elections, and holding a second for statehouse and congressional seats. There are concerns about the cost for two primaries, as well as the possibility of lower turnout.

    Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York. Story credit: Public News Service, 2/10/2022, Mary Schuermann, Producer

The Political Divide

 New Studies Confirm 

Perceptual Differences Between

Political Parties

WASHINGTON -- (BUSINESS WIRE) -- June 27, 2021 -- The 2020 election was unique in American politics. For the first time, an incumbent president lost the popular and electoral college votes but refused to concede the election, claiming without evidence that widespread fraud tainted the results. Yet U.S. history is rife with examples of contested election results and fraud claims. Was 2020 different in significant ways, and does that raise serious concerns about the health of our democracy?

The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group releases two reports on June 24 that shed light on these crucial questions. The reports – “Theft Perception: Examining the Views of Americans Who Believe the 2020 Election was Stolen,” by Lee Drutman of New America, and “Crisis of Confidence: How Election 2020 Was Different,” by Robert Griffin and Mayesha Quasem of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group – suggest that 2020 was indeed unique and that faith in our democracy has been shaken to an unprecedented degree.

    “Free and fair elections are a cornerstone of our democracy, but it’s also important that the public trusts the results of those elections. Unfortunately, the 2020 election cycle and actions of former President Trump have shaken that trust,” Voter Study Group Research Director Robert Griffin said. “These reports provide details that help us understand how Americans perceive the electoral process, which may help policymakers address this serious crisis in confidence.”

    “It’s not uncommon to have some claims of voter fraud and lower trust among the losing party after elections, but 2020 stands out for the intensity and scale of mistrust in the election,” said Mayesha Quasem, research associate at Voter Study Group. “All of this raises serious concerns about the stability of our democracy going forward."

    Key findings – Crisis of Confidence

• A week after the 2020 presidential election, the overwhelming majority (93%) of Biden voters said that they were confident that the election was conducted fairly and accurately, but only 29% of Trump voters said the same. There was almost no difference in confidence between these groups in the week before Election Day.
• The percentage of Trump voters in 2020 who said they were not at all confident that their vote was tallied accurately was more than four times as high as the percentage of Clinton voters who said the same in 2016 (35% vs 8%).
• Fifty nine percent of Americans said that permanent harm had been done to the United States as a result of the election process.

    Theft Perception takes a closer look at the rise of the Stop the Steal movement sparked by former President Trump’s claims of a stolen election.

    “Republican politicians across the country have continued to support the narrative of a stolen election,” said Lee Drutman, senior fellow in the Political Reform program of New America. “While the sentiment is not necessarily surprising, in practice, we’re seeing a doubling down of this narrative, which is driving a new wave of state laws that restrict voting access.”

    Key findings – Theft Perception

• Republicans widely support Donald Trump and believe his claims about a stolen election. While Republicans support all elements of the “Stop the Steal” narrative in high numbers, the overall electorate largely rejects these claims and propositions.
• Among Republicans, 85% believe it was appropriate for Trump to file lawsuits challenging election results in several states, and the same proportion believe that vote-by-mail increases voter fraud.
• Republicans most committed to both Trump and the narrative of election fraud share a few other views in common: extreme antipathy toward Democrats and immigrants, belief that racism is not a problem, support for nationalism, belief in traditional family values and gender roles, and preference for a very limited role for government in the economy.

    Throughout the summer, Voter Study Group will release reports examining other Trump-era topics with implications for the future of American democracy including views on race, populism, trust in institutions and issue prioritization and the change and stability of the American electorate. The reports show the consequences and dangers of our leaders being irresponsible and spreading mis- and dis-information.

Interactive Data on Voter Views: Nationscape Insights

    From July 2019 to January 2021, the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey asked hundreds of thousands of Americans in every region of the U.S. about some of the nation’s biggest issues — including the economy, guns, healthcare, and climate change — and it tracked changes over time.

    First launched in partnership with USA TODAY, Nationscape Insights makes week-by-week Nationscape survey data available with interactive visualizations you can sort by race, gender, income, geography, education level, and political leanings. With Nationscape insights, it’s possible to dive deep on the policy preferences of groups once too small to examine but who were pivotal to election outcomes — to help make sense of an era, and election, like no other in America’s history.

    Refreshed with the final Nationscape dataset fielded November 12, 2020, through January 12, 2021, Nationscape Insights is now available on voterstudygroup.org.

About Democracy Fund Voter Study Group

    The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group is a research collaboration of more than two dozen analysts and scholars from across the political spectrum. Created in the wake of the 2016 election, the Voter Study Group’s goal is to better understand the American electorate by examining and delivering insights on the evolving views of American voters. Research and analysis from Voter Study Group members can be found at www.voterstudygroup.org and on Twitter @democracyfund.

County Politics

Rebuilding in Madison County

By James Grandone
Commentary

___________

 

The Madison Co. Administration Building

  EDWARDSVILLE - 11/20/2020 - “The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades” is a song by one-hit-wonder Timbuk 3 in 1986. To hear the heads of the Republican and Democratic parties talk about the future, they both have their Ray-Bans on.

 
    I spoke with Ray Wesley, chairman of the Madison County Republican Party (@GOPMADISONCOUNTY) and Randy Harris, newly minted chairman of the Madison County Democratic Party (@MadcoDems) after the 2020 general election. Both were optimistic about the future prospects of their party in coming elections and both cited shortcomings and strengths. But they had very different messages.

    Wesley’s Republicans are coming off a heady success at the county level that saw President Donald Trump win handily with more than 75,000 votes against former Vice President Joe Biden who got just below 57,000 votes. Countywide offices saw similar results and the party took most of the open positions at the county board level as well.

    Harris attributes the loss to the media and the national headlines. “People just came out and voted for Trump.” Democrats are looking to the future and plan to “reorganize, reach out and message” to attract the blue-collar workers the party has lost starting in the 2010 election and going forward.

    “We put out a very good, robust message around issues important to local Democrats,” said Harris. “It’s all about how we’re going to help the blue-collar workers who get up and go to work every day.”

   Wesley’s party’s message was simple: fiscally conservative philosophy coupled with lower taxes and less government. “We are the No. 1 taxed state in the country, and we are trying to save every dollar for taxpayers.” I think Californians would take exception to that statement, but there it is.

    Harris is skeptical about the Republicans’ tax-cutting and wants to know what services will be eliminated when the revenue isn’t there to pay for them. To him, it’s a quality of life issue. His point is well made, in that many of the services that Madison County residents enjoy are the same amenities that attract young families to live here.

    The Republican leader emphasizes cutting the budget, lowering the tax levy and maintaining services.

   “We want less government, lower taxes and to protect the integrity of taxpayers’ money, “Wesley said.

   To back that up, he said that when he was first elected to the county board in 2016, the tax bill for the county was “around 10 to 11 percent and today, it’s around seven percent.”

    Both parties’ arguments are compelling. People want the services but don’t want to pay the property taxes that are needed to support them.

    From a political point of view, the Democrats are facing an uphill battle for the hearts and minds of the blue-collar worker whose interests they say they represent but who feel the tax pinch, as well as the headwind of a national media that has had Trump in the news every day since he was elected. While Republicans, as Wesley said, are going to settle into their new offices and not disappoint the voters who put their confidence in them.

    Both say they are optimistic but that there is a lot of work ahead in building their organizations.

 ------------------

Jim Grandone

Jim Grandone is a long-time resident of Edwardsville, Ill. He was the architect of the 'East County...If You Only Knew' marketing campaign promoting the Metro East to businesses in St. Louis in the 1990s. Grandone holds a BA in political science from the University of Illinois at Springfield and was a Coro Fellow and serves on a variety of boards. He lives in Leclaire with his wife, Mary. 

 

Reprinted with permission. This article originally ran in the 

Edwardsville Intelligencer

 

COVID-19 Impact

Study: Red States Under More 

Financial Distress Than Blue States

By Steve Rensberry 

RP News

_____________

   EDWARDSVILLE, Ill. - (RP NEWS) - 9/17/2020 - Gauging the overall financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Americans across the country has been a difficult but not impossible task. One recent study, by the financial enterprise WalletHub, provides some insight.

Released last week, among the key findings was that people in “Red States” -- defined as those states that voted for President Donald Trump in 2016 -- were suffering more financial distress than those in “Blue States.”

According to Financial Writer Adam McCann, the company used nine key metrics, such as average credit score, change in the number of bankruptcies between January and July, and the percentage of people with “accounts in distress,” which it defined as being either in forbearance or has its payments deferred.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the biggest public health crises the U.S. has ever faced, but it has been almost as devastating to Americans’ finances as it has to their health,” McCann writes. “Between hospital bills and sky-high unemployment, the pandemic has put millions of Americans in financial distress. While the CARES Act helped mitigate some of that damage earlier in the year, the lack of a new bipartisan deal has left many people wondering how they will meet their financial obligations.”

Where Illinois stands in key categories: 

• Change in Credit Score - August vs. January - 36th
• Change in the share of people with accounts in distress: Aug vs. Jan. - 7th
• Change in the Average No. of Accounts in Distress - August vs. January - 15th
• Change in Number of Bankruptcy Filings - July vs. January - 42nd
• “Debt” Search Interest Index' Rank - 26th
• WalletHub “States Where People Need Loans the Most Due to Coronavirus” Score - 20th

Researchers determined the weighted average across each of the metrics to derive an overall score for each state, with the smaller the number, the more financially distressed people were in that state. Data sources included the American Bankruptcy Institute, Google Trends, and WalletHub data.

To view the full report and metrics for each state, see: Financial Distress Study

Election 2020

Conventions Reveal Stark

Difference Between 

Candidates, Parties

Voters Asked To Choose Between Competition Visions

 

By James Grandone 
Commentary

______________ 

   There is a difference between political parties and if you think there is not, you have not been paying attention.

Jim Grandone

    We once had a two-party system in the U.S.A. I know because I studied it at the University of Illinois Springfield where I graduated with a B.A. in political science. Grand theories were expounded about how people chose one party or the other. It was, however, fairly predictable how the result of one or the other party would govern, but both were moderately liberal or conservative. Until Reagan, that is. Reagan said government is the problem and from then on, one party ran against government and its regulations on business and perceived assaults on personal freedom.

   In August, we had two political party conventions, or rather one political party convention and a four-day Trump rally. The Democrats adopted a party platform, while the Republicans adopted an oath of loyalty to Trump. A party platform is designed to tell voters how a party plans to govern for the next four years.

   The Democrats adopted a 92-page comprehensive document that addresses healthcare, climate change, racial injustice and falls short of endorsing the Green New Deal and Medicare for all.

   The Republicans adopted a one-page resolution. The Trump campaign announced a 50-bullet-point document titled “Fighting for You.” As part of the pledges in the document, the campaign included holding China accountable for allowing the novel coronavirus to spread around the world, a manned mission to Mars and “Getting Allies to Pay their Fair Share.”

   The contrast is stark. Democrats are looking to a future of ideas that will improve individual lives while Republicans are recycling their 2016 platform.

   But the most important change is that the Republican Party is now the Trump Party. It stands for whatever the president says it does. This is not a positive development for the republic or the Republican Party. It is the stuff of “Cult of Personality,” not representative democracy.

Trump has shown himself to be light on intellectual discourse and heavy on impulse. It is an authoritarian style of governance that he has exhibited and the GOP has adopted whole.

   In contrast, the Democratic Party has taken on the difficult issues that affect working men and women. Issues like the minimum wage increase, healthcare access and the environment. Broad initiatives that represent real ideas. As President Kennedy said 60 years ago, Democrats are choosing to do these things “not because they are easy, but because they are hard …”

   We see in the Democratic Platform a road map for the next four years in terms of domestic policy and international relations. It is a contract between a party and a people, rather than a resolution to support the policies of one man, whatever he chooses them to be at the moment.

   America has suffered in its reputation internationally because we are not perceived as dependable by our allies and our adversaries. This presidency has alienated our allies around the world and our global leadership has been lost because of it. Domestically, we have suffered not only because COVID-19 has ravaged our people but because it could have turned out differently with better leadership. The same is true with racial injustice and the immigrant situation on the southern border.

   So, it is clear that one party wants to forge ahead into the future with a plan that is transparent and clearly understandable, while another party is comfortable with government by impulse with no clear idea of what it stands for.

   This year, we are being asked to decide between those conflicting visions. Choose wisely.

Jim Grandone is a long-time resident of Edwardsville, Ill. He was the architect of the 'East County...If You Only Knew' marketing campaign promoting the Metro East to businesses in St. Louis in the 1990s. Grandone holds a BA in political science from the University of Illinois at Springfield and was a Coro Fellow and serves on a variety of boards. He lives in Leclaire with his wife, Mary.

Reprinted with permission. This article originally ran in the Edwardsville Intelligencer

Posted on RP News, Sept 15, 2020

Election 2020

Battleground States Will

Likely Tip the Scales

By Steve Rensberry

RP News

__________

EDWARDSVILLE - (RP NEWS) - 9/8/2020 - The infographic above, produced by statista, shows the U.S electoral map and the number of Democrat/Republican wins per state over the last decade. As noted by data journalist Felix Richter, as of Aug. 26 national polls showed the current president trailing challenger Joe Biden.

Things change fast, however, and Richter cautions against relying on poll results, as many analysts do. “As we've learned in 2016, polls only go so far in predicting the outcome of the election, and in the end, it will likely come down to who comes out victorious in a few battleground states,” Richter states. “Back in 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, but narrow wins in several swing states were enough to tip the election in his favor and win the presidency.”

Electoral map data indicates that Republican presidential candidates have won 13 states in each presidential election in the past 10 years, compared to only two that have been won by Democrats in that time, Richter notes.

The average of 10 national polls, reported by 270towin as of Sept. 6, 2020, showed Biden with 50 percent voter support to 42 percent for Trump. In the battleground state of Wisconsin, the latest poll showed Biden at 50 percent and Trump with 43 percent.

Conflict Continues in Portland

Trump's 'Secret Police Force' Casts 

a Dystopian Pall

By Cheryl Eichar Jett
Opinion/Analysis

------------------------

   EDWARDSVILLE, Ill. - July 24, 2020 - Citizens of the fictional country of Oceania feared the Thought Police in George Orwell's dystopian – some say prescient – novel entitled 1984. After Donald J. Trump won the 2016 presidential election, Amazon sold out of Orwell's book. Will the outrage over the unmarked military police at the Portland, Oregon, Black Lives Matter protests spike another round of social protest book sales?

The Mark O. Hatfield U.S. Courthouse. Photo by Steve Morgan. Creative Commons License.

   While the Oceania Thought Police are fiction, the unmarked military descending from unmarked rental vans to harass, injure, and kidnap protesters in Portland are disturbingly real. Real enough to cast a dystopian shadow across the United States as U.S. President Donald J. Trump and his willing sidekicks, Attorney General William Barr and Acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, violate civil rights in Portland and threaten to send uninvited federal law enforcement into other major U.S. cities to do their bidding.
   Against the background of intense and ongoing Black Lives Matter protests, unidentified (except for a generic “police” patch on their camo uniforms) paramilitary showed up in Portland earlier in July. And they are still there. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) claimed them and insists the forces are in Portland to defend federal buildings against violent anarchists, although the statement they initially released simply lists instances of graffiti. Meanwhile, the protesters aren't backing down. If anything, their numbers are increasing as the “Wall of Moms” and subsequently the “Portland Dads with leaf blowers” have shown up to help protect the young protesters. Ironically, consider the pepper spraying of Portland's Mayor Ted Wheeler at an anti-police brutality protest.
  Condemnation of the troops' presence and actions has been swift and fierce. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General William Barr, urging that “the Department of Justice (DOJ) must begin the necessary, independent, and thorough process of appointing a special prosecutor to investigate and, if warranted, prosecute, those responsible for ordering and carrying out attacks on protesters.” Democratic mayors of major cities across the country have also pushed back in a letter sent to both DHS and DOJ.
   During the past several days, criticism has been relentless. On Tuesday, July 21, on the MSNBC TV show “Deadline Whitehouse,” journalist and national-affairs analyst John Heilemann called the unmarked military in Portland a “trial run” for actions in additional cities. Heilemann posed the question, “Is this going to be used as voter intimidation on Election Day?” Eric Holder, former U.S. Attorney General during the Obama administration, also appearing on the show, said that Trump “may be planning to delegitimize the election this way.”
 

  Also on Tuesday, Retired Three-Star Lt. General Russel Honore, who became the voice of reason and an American hero with his decisive and effective action after he was put in charge of the Hurricane Katrina effort in 2005, was on fire on “The 11th Hour with Brian Williams.” Honore, with a long and well-respected military career behind him, vociferously decried the paramilitary actions, “What kind of bullsh** is this? Wolf [DHS Acting Secretary] needs to be run out of Washington. He has no business being in charge of Homeland Security . . . they have denigrated this to a lawless group who go around and think they can suppress demonstrators.”
   On Wednesday, the concern clearly grew. Appearing on “Meet the Press Daily” (MTPD), Sen. Ed Merkley, D-Oregon, opined that Trump is simply planning to stir up more trouble in order to present himself as the savior. Also on Wednesday's MTPD, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon said that we are “looking down the barrel of martial law during an election.” In reference to the Black Lives Matter protest, Wyden stated that Donald Trump and Chad Wolf have “basically inflamed the situation.” Yet another guest was Mayor Quinton Lucas, D-Kansas City, Missouri, who quipped that instead of a dog whistle it's “dog barking” from Trump.
   On Wednesday evening, on “The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell,” Neal Katyal, an MSNBC contributor and Professor of National Security Law at Georgetown University Law Center, formerly Acting Solicitor General of the U.S., analyzed the situation. In terms of policy problems, “we see secret unmarked agents beating and teargassing the American people,” Katyal explained. “Legally . . . what we are seeing is rebellion against our deepest constitutional principles. This is a betrayal of what America's about.” An hour later on “The 11th Hour with Brian Williams,” Steve Schmidt, the always-eloquent former Republican strategist and founder of the Lincoln Project, called the deployment “federal thuggery.” He added, “It's out of control, and no American should stand for this.”
   This week, an Oregon court is hearing a lawsuit seeking a restraining order barring federal agents in Portland from restraining citizens. Sen. Ron Wyden testified that these actions by Trump are nothing more than part of his re-election campaign, with film footage being obtained for his “law and order” platform. A ruling is expected yet this week.
   Chad Wolf, the former lobbyist appointed by Trump to the position of Acting Director of Homeland Security, defended his actions in a July 21 press conference, and in subsequent appearances on news shows. “We will not retreat,” he stated. Wolf was previously an architect of the Trump administration's family separation policy.
   Trump is threatening to deploy federal forces to other major cities (with Democratic mayors) in what he calls “Operation Legend.” Acting DHS Secretary Wolf insists this is different from the situation in Portland, making the distinction that in Portland they are protecting federal buildings from violent rioters, while in the other cities the intent is to assist with overcoming a high violent crime rate. Trump's “Democrat cities” rhetoric and a crackdown on local crime are being conflated, and mayors aren't buying it. Both Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzger and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot have pushed back strongly against federal forces arriving in Chicago.
   Trump's authoritarian deployment of unmarked baton-wielding federal troops into America's major cities against the wishes of their mayors is a chapter that's going to be hard to close the book on any time soon. This is not dystopian fiction, but the sad and shocking reality, and it's still being written.

Further reference
Neither side is backing down as federal agents and protestors clash
Lawmakers, church, others file suit
ACLU sends letter to Attorney General Barr
Mayors call on Trump Administration to withdraw forces
Trump considers 'more federal law enforcement' for Detroit protests
Nothing can justify the attack on Portland

Election Trends

Democrats Gain Ground In Race

For Control of U.S. House

By Steve Rensberry

srensberry@rensberrypublishing.com

-----------------------------------------------

EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 8, 2020 -- All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for election on Nov. 3, with most forecasts showing a tight battle in many states, while leaning toward continued control by the Democrats. Significant uncertainty remains, however, with a full 118 days left until the big day.

The 2020 Consensus map compiled each election by the site 270toWin shows, as of June 2, the Democrats with a likely 223 seats and the Republicans with 193, with 19 seats forecast as “toss-ups.”

Of the 223 forecast for the Democrats, 181 are designated at “safe,” 27 are designated “likely,” and 15 are designated as “leaning.” Of the 193 forecast for the Republicans, 158 are designed “safe,” 21 as “likely,” and 14 as “leaning.” The Democrat currently control the house and will need to win 218 seats to maintain that advantage.

Rachel Bitecofer of the Washington D.C. Niskanent Center posted an update of the center's projections on June 7, speculating that the Democrats would capture 50 Senate seats to the Republican's 47, with three considered toss-ups. In the House, the Niskanen projects the Democrats will capture 241 seats to the Republican's 182.

“Whatever 2020 turnout is, barring something extraordinary that disrupts the election, if more Democrats and left-leaning independents vote than did so in 2016 and pure independents break against Trump and congressional Republicans, Democrats will not only hold their 2018 House gains — they are poised to expand on their House majority and are competitive to take control of the Senate,” Biecofer stated in her report.

She cited the rising Covid-19 death toll, a leveled economy, and the significant impact polarization is having on the process. She draws an interesting parallel with Jimmy Carer's reelection campaign in 1980, not facing a polarized nation did face an economy in a downward spiral from oil shortages, inflation and unemployment, then was hit with the Iranian hostage crisis.

“Sound familiar? It should, because in the electoral bloodbath that followed, down-ticket Republicans flipped control of the Senate from Democrats for the first time in 25 years. They also used the chaos to remake the American economy, but that is a story for another day,” Bitecofer stated.

For a look at the full Niskanent Center update and report, see Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections.

Race for Votes

Democrats Dominate Latest

Census Electoral Map

By Steve Rensberry
srensberry@rensberrypublishing.com

-------------------------------------------------

   EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 1, 2020 -- With just 125 days until the Nov. 3, 2020 General Election, the nonpartisan website 270toWin is projecting a significant sweep by the Democrat Party candidate.
   Aggregate data compiled by the site in its 2020 Consensus Electoral Map, as of June 30, projects the Democrat candidate with relative assurance of 248 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, and the Republican candidate with 204. 

Visit 270toWin for additional map details.

   States considered Democrat strongholds include: Washington, Oregon, California, Illinois, New York, Hawaii, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and D.C. (183 electoral votes)
   States considered to be leaning Democrat include Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire (36 electoral votes).
   Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are seen as likely for Democrats (29 electoral votes).
    States seen as safe for Republicans include: Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Alaska (116 electoral votes).
   States leaning Republican include: Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa (79 electoral votes).
   States considered likely to vote Republican include Montana and Utah (9 electoral votes).
   Toss-up states include: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Utah, and Arizona (86 electoral votes).
   “To be inclusive of all states with even a small chance of being competitive, only those rated safe by at least eight of the ten forecasts are shown in the darkest shade,” the site states.    Ratings use in the composite forecast are obtained from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Niskanen Center, The Economics, PredictIt, Politico CNN, NPR, and U.S. News.
   “To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one,” they note. “Only states rated safe by eight or more of the ten forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.”
   See: Consensus Electoral Map; Forecasts Used

Presidential delegate filing highlights Illinois' role

By Benjamin Yount, Stephanie Fryer and Anthony Brino

Illinois Statehouse News

   SPRINGFIELD - 1/8/2012 - While the Republican presidential candidates are in New Hampshire this weekend, their surrogates are trying their best to bring the one-upmanship of the race to Illinois.
   January 6 was the last day for the 2012 GOP presidential campaigns to file their delegates with the state Board of Elections.
   Illinois State University political science professor Bob Bradley said the delegate slates help gauge the strength of a campaign, if not the candidate.
   "That's why you pay attention to these filings," Bradley said. "You have to see who is on these delegate lists. They could be the next up-and-comers in the party. You also get a sense of who is important."
   The delegates, chosen from each of the Illinois' 18 Congressional Districts in the March primary, will go to the national nominating conventions where they will vote on the nominee for president. This year, the conventions will be held in August in Tampa, Fla., for the Republicans and September in Charlotte, N.C. for the Democrats.
   Illinois Republicans will send 108 delegates in all, but only 54 will vote for a presidential candidate. The other 54 will serve as alternates. Democrats will send 123 to their convention for President Barack Obama.
   Delegates are elected individually from each of the state's 18 Congressional districts. Voters have to chose the delegate by name; a vote for the candidate is not counted as a vote for that candidate's delegates.
   Newt Gingrich's and Rick Santorum's Illinois campaigns were among the last-minute filers Friday.
   Gingrich's Illinois campaign chairman Keith Hansen said voters shouldn't read too much into filing on the last day or the lack of a "headline" name on the delegate or alternate list.
  "We've had conversations with some prominent names in the political community in Illinois, and they have agreed to join our state campaign committee," Hansen said. "We will be making some of those announcements next week."
   Among the delegates for the former U.S. House Speaker are state Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, state Sen. Darin LaHood, R-Peoria, and former state Rep. Bill Black, R-Danville.
   The Georgia native’s team filed a full slate of 54 delegates and four alternates.
   Santorum's delegate list is light on lawmakers, but full of some of Illinois' bigger conservative names. Santorum's campaign filed a slate of 47 delegates and 40 alternates.
   "What you find is many of Illinois' tea party leaders, pro-life and pro-family leaders as well," said Jon Zahm, spokesman for Santorum's Illinois campaign.
   Former Republican state Rep. Al Salvi and his wife have filed as Santorum delegates as have Irene Napier, the head of the anti-abortion group, the Right to Life of McHenry County, and David Smith, chairman of the conservative political group, the Illinois Family Action pack.
   Mitt Romney's campaign was the first of the GOP candidates to file its list of supporters. The campaign for the former Massachusetts governor also filed a full slate of 54 delegates and 54 alternates.
   Romney's Illinois campaign chairman and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford said he was first in line Tuesday with his slate of supporters.
   Joining Rutherford on the Romney team are state Rep. Patti Bellock, R-Hinsdale, state Sen. Dale Righter, R-Mattoon, and state Rep. Rich Brauer, R-Petersburg.
   Supporters of Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul filed their 54 delegates and 54 alternates earlier this week, but that list is absent of any state lawmakers.
   Andrew Craig, Moline delegate for Paul, said Paul supporters don't need or, in many cases, want big-name politicians representing their cause.
   "I think it's more important to have average, everyday citizens," Craig said. "We don't need to be supported by the political class."
   There are no delegates who filed for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman's campaign.
   The delegate list for Obama reads like the who’s who of prominent Democrats, including state Rep. Lou Lang, D-Skokie, and state Sen. Terry Link, D-Waukegan. 

   Bradley said people selected to be delegates are known commodities in the political world, but he adds that "going to a convention is a cool perk."
   But the conventions, Bradley said, will not decide the candidates. The race for the GOP nomination will probably be over long before the August convention, he said.
   "You have one or two candidates who stay in the race no matter what," Bradley said. "But for the most part the race will be over by the Super Tuesday primary."
   Super Tuesday is the multi-state primary on March 6. Voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia go to the polls and select the GOP presidential nominee.

   Story courtesy of Illinois Statehouse News

Economy Trumps Social Issues, Foreign Policy

Candidates Avoid Debates Over Civil Rights, Middle East Conflict
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                       By Mike Cyr
                   Business/Economy
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   (RPC) - 11/6/10 - As expected, the recent midterm election has elevated the spirits of the populist, relatively-out-of-power political right. The question is, for how long?
   Despite their gains, it's a near certainly that those who consider themselves left wing, centrist or otherwise different from the right will soon find their own spirits becoming energized in near equal proportion, as has been the case throughout history.
   One of many oddities of the Nov. 2 election was noted in a Nov. 5 article by Michael Cooper of the New York Times. That is, even though voters turned over a large number of seats to Republicans they did so with a striking degree of trepidation. If it was a vote for the "lesser of two evils," is was only by the very slightest degree. Exit polls, Cooper points out, showed 53 percent of voters disapproving of the Democrats and 52 percent disapproving of the Republicans. Apparently some weren't afraid to parcel out blame to both in equal measure.
   As pertains to blame, Cooper notes poll results which show voters blaming Wall Street (35 percent), President George W. Bush (29 percent), and President Barack Obama (23 percent). See Debunking the Myths of the Midterm.
   Rather than presenting either major party with a  mandate, the results suggest a public that is profoundly confused, incredible impatient and nearly schizophrenic in some respects. Maybe the economy was beginning to turn around. Maybe not. Either way, today's elected officials--of whatever ideological persuasion--are being asked to govern in an almost lose-lose situation.
   Two addition observations: There was a near total lack of debate in this past election over social issues such as abortion and gay rights, and over foreign policy--issues that are certain to hold sway over the election of 2012. Baring an economic miracle, time may be the only remedy to escape the vicious "get in, get all you can, then get out" political pattern that appears to rule the day.