Democrats Dominate Latest
Census Electoral Map
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EDWARDSVILLE, IL - July 1, 2020 -- With just 125 days until the Nov. 3, 2020 General Election, the nonpartisan website 270toWin is projecting a significant sweep by the Democrat Party candidate. Aggregate data compiled by the site in its 2020 Consensus Electoral Map, as of June 30, projects the Democrat candidate with relative assurance of 248 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, and the Republican candidate with 204.
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| Visit 270toWin for additional map details. |
States considered to be leaning Democrat include Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire (36 electoral votes).
Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are seen as likely for Democrats (29 electoral votes).
States seen as safe for Republicans include: Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Alaska (116 electoral votes).
States leaning Republican include: Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa (79 electoral votes).
States considered likely to vote Republican include Montana and Utah (9 electoral votes).
Toss-up states include: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Utah, and Arizona (86 electoral votes).
“To be inclusive of all states with even a small chance of being competitive, only those rated safe by at least eight of the ten forecasts are shown in the darkest shade,” the site states. Ratings use in the composite forecast are obtained from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Niskanen Center, The Economics, PredictIt, Politico CNN, NPR, and U.S. News.
“To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one,” they note. “Only states rated safe by eight or more of the ten forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.”
See: Consensus Electoral Map; Forecasts Used
