New Studies Confirm
Perceptual Differences Between
Political Parties
WASHINGTON --
(BUSINESS WIRE) -- June 27, 2021 -- The 2020 election was unique in
American politics. For the first time, an incumbent president lost
the popular and electoral college votes but refused to concede the
election, claiming without evidence that widespread fraud tainted the
results. Yet U.S. history is rife with examples of contested election
results and fraud claims. Was 2020 different in significant ways, and
does that raise serious concerns about the health of our democracy?
The Democracy Fund
Voter Study Group releases two reports on June 24 that shed light on
these crucial questions. The reports – “Theft Perception: Examining the Views of Americans Who Believe the 2020 Election was Stolen,” by Lee Drutman of New America, and “Crisis of Confidence: How Election 2020 Was Different,” by Robert Griffin and
Mayesha Quasem of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group – suggest
that 2020 was indeed unique and that faith in our democracy has been
shaken to an unprecedented degree.
“Free and fair elections are a cornerstone of our democracy, but it’s
also important that the public trusts the results of those elections.
Unfortunately, the 2020 election cycle and actions of former President
Trump have shaken that trust,” Voter Study Group Research Director
Robert Griffin said. “These reports provide details that help us
understand how Americans perceive the electoral process, which may help
policymakers address this serious crisis in confidence.”
“It’s not uncommon to have some claims of voter fraud and lower trust
among the losing party after elections, but 2020 stands out for the
intensity and scale of mistrust in the election,” said Mayesha Quasem,
research associate at Voter Study Group. “All of this raises serious
concerns about the stability of our democracy going forward."
Key findings – Crisis of Confidence
-
A week after the 2020 presidential election, the overwhelming majority
(93%) of Biden voters said that they were confident that the election
was conducted fairly and accurately, but only 29% of Trump voters said
the same. There was almost no difference in confidence between these
groups in the week before Election Day.
-
The percentage of Trump voters in 2020 who said they were not at all
confident that their vote was tallied accurately was more than four
times as high as the percentage of Clinton voters who said the same in
2016 (35% vs 8%).
-
Fifty nine percent of Americans said that permanent harm had been done to the United States as a result of the election process.
Theft Perception takes a closer look at the rise of the Stop the Steal
movement sparked by former President Trump’s claims of a stolen
election.
“Republican politicians across the country have continued to support the
narrative of a stolen election,” said Lee Drutman, senior fellow in the
Political Reform program of New America. “While the sentiment is not
necessarily surprising, in practice, we’re seeing a doubling down of
this narrative, which is driving a new wave of state laws that restrict
voting access.”
Key findings – Theft Perception
-
Republicans widely support Donald Trump and believe his claims about a
stolen election. While Republicans support all elements of the “Stop the
Steal” narrative in high numbers, the overall electorate largely
rejects these claims and propositions.
-
Among Republicans, 85% believe it was appropriate for Trump to file
lawsuits challenging election results in several states, and the same
proportion believe that vote-by-mail increases voter fraud.
-
Republicans most committed to both Trump and the narrative of election
fraud share a few other views in common: extreme antipathy toward
Democrats and immigrants, belief that racism is not a problem, support
for nationalism, belief in traditional family values and gender roles,
and preference for a very limited role for government in the economy.
Throughout the summer, Voter Study Group will release reports examining
other Trump-era topics with implications for the future of American
democracy including views on race, populism, trust in institutions and
issue prioritization and the change and stability of the American
electorate. The reports show the consequences and dangers of our leaders
being irresponsible and spreading mis- and dis-information.
Interactive Data on Voter Views: Nationscape Insights
From July 2019 to January 2021, the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape
survey asked hundreds of thousands of Americans in every region of the
U.S. about some of the nation’s biggest issues — including the economy,
guns, healthcare, and climate change — and it tracked changes over time.
First launched in partnership with USA TODAY, Nationscape Insights makes
week-by-week Nationscape survey data available with interactive
visualizations you can sort by race, gender, income, geography,
education level, and political leanings. With Nationscape insights, it’s
possible to dive deep on the policy preferences of groups once too
small to examine but who were pivotal to election outcomes — to help
make sense of an era, and election, like no other in America’s history.
Refreshed with the final Nationscape dataset fielded November 12, 2020, through January 12, 2021, Nationscape Insights is now available on voterstudygroup.org.
About Democracy Fund Voter Study Group
The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group is a research collaboration of more
than two dozen analysts and scholars from across the political
spectrum. Created in the wake of the 2016 election, the Voter Study
Group’s goal is to better understand the American electorate by
examining and delivering insights on the evolving views of American
voters. Research and analysis from Voter Study Group members can be
found at www.voterstudygroup.org and on Twitter @democracyfund.